April 12 in Hungary: An election that worries Putin?

Hungary's general election on Sunday, April 12, is closely watched in Moscow. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has long been Vladimir Putin's closest ally in Europe. But to what extent will the victory of the opposition Peter Magyar change the situation in Russia?

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Will Vladimir Putin face Europe's worst political night on Sunday, April 12?Viktor Orbán, who has been in power for 16 years and enjoys good diplomatic relations with Moscow, is in danger of losing parliamentary elections in Hungary.His opponent, Peter Magyar, is far ahead of him in the polls.

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The Russian government appears to have mobilized all its resources to support its protégé.Idit Zgut, an expert on Hungary at the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology of the Polish Academy of Sciences and a researcher at the Institute of Democracy at Central European University, said: "There has been a clear increase in electoral interference during the campaign, and the evidence of Russian interference is becoming increasingly convincing."

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Simulated assassination attempt, intelligence "experts" and Putin's translator

The interference allegations culminated in the revelations on March 21 of a fake Russian assassination plot against Viktor Orbán.

The operation, which Russian intelligence has described as a "decisive turning point," was intended to "move the election debate to an emotional rather than rational level" and that the operation favored the prime minister's nomination, according to The Washington Post, which has seen a Russian document about the plan.

But that's not all.Moscow has been accused of sending a group of election "experts" - linked to the GRU or military intelligence - to Budapest to closely monitor terrorist activities.

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Vladimir Putin's appointment of interpreter Daria Boyarskaya as head of the Parliamentary Assembly election observer group of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has been criticized by several Hungarian opposition lawmakers.About fifty of them have called for Boyarskaya's removal from the key international body that oversees the integrity of Hungary's elections.

At this point, "it is no longer just about interference, but about electoral collusion between Viktor Orban and Russia," summarizes Anton Shekhovtsov, director of the Center for Democratic Integrity in Austria and an expert on Russia's relations with far-right parties in Europe.

Russian agents are doing everything they can to "remobilize Viktor Orbán voters, exploit their fears [of being drawn into a war against Russia], dissuade undecided voters from voting for the opposition and present what is at stake in this vote as a choice between 'peace and stability' with Viktor Orbán's Fidesz in power and 'Tichaos and the war will win'" Editszaare, yes EditszaaysP.Zgut.

Viktor Orban, u "chief appeaser in Europa" di Putin.

This use of resources by Russia does not appear to be particularly effective so far.Peter Magyar, a former member of Fidesz who, among other things, advocates many pro-European policies, continues to lead in the polls with an advantage of around 10 points.

Anton Shekhovtsov points out that if these efforts fail, it will be a "loss for Moscow."

Viktor Orbán represents "Vladimir Putin's best European friend and his most reliable partner in protecting Russia's interests in the EU", underlines Michael Toomey, a specialist in populism in Central Europe at the University of Glasgow.

The Russian government does not want to "lose Brussels' Trojan horse," adds Zgut Edit.

For Russia, Orban is also "the main destabilizer in Europe," says Shekhovtsov.

The Hungarian prime minister did not simply advocate lifting sanctions against Moscow or vetoing financial aid to Ukraine.Michael Toomey pointed out that this "systematically impedes the functioning of the EU", and not only on matters related to Russia, which benefits Putin by undermining the bloc's cohesion.

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However, Orbán's defeat would not be a “total disaster for Russia”, according to this British expert.Firstly, because the Hungarian Prime Minister is no longer the only one Moscow can count on.“Roberta Fitz's Slovakia will undoubtedly try to undermine the policy in favor of Ukraine and the European Union,” adds Shekhovtsov.

Putin has other resources he can count on in the future, experts interviewed said.In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party “represents one of the most right-wing Russian parties in Europe,” Shekhovtsov insists.The AfD may not be in power yet, but it is very popular in Germany.

How much room for maneuver will Russia have if Peter Magyar wins?

With Viktor Orbán, Russia could essentially get Hungary's support. Sometimes the situation is not so clear.

"Robert Fico has little freedom of decision because the country (Slovakia) is part of the euro zone," unlike Hungary, said Edit Zgut.

In Germany, the AfD is unlikely to be able to govern alone if it wins the election.Its pro-Russian bias will certainly be limited to its coalition partners.

However, Russia's liberation may also come from Hungary, even if Peter Magyar wins.This former Fidesz member has promised to take a more skeptical stance towards Russia and "maybe no worse than Viktor Orbán, but we shouldn't expect a complete break with Moscow," says Michael Toomey.

The presidential candidate "stated that Russia's energy dependency will not end before 2035, while the EU wants members to achieve this by 2027," Zgut emphasizes.In other words, Magyar is willing to make an agreement with Moscow if it is due to the strength of his country.

To be sure, Europe "does not expect Hungary to sever all relations with Russia overnight, but only to work better at the European level," said Anton Shekhovtsov.

In particular, the EU hopes that Orban's latest successor will be in line with Europe's position on the war in Ukraine.The problem is that Magyar will not be able to easily leave the Orbán era in Hungary.

The Prime Minister of Hungary has done everything possible to ensure the safety of his people and the media.

If Magyar wins on Sunday and "tries to play a more responsible role at European level, he will face enormous internal pressure, both from Russian propaganda and from Orbán's men who still hold key positions," Shekhovtsov stressed.

According to experts interviewed, the best way for Hungary to break away from Russia as quickly as possible is for Tija to secure a comfortable majority that avoids having to compromise to form a government on Sunday.

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Article adapted from the original French